Assessing the Spatial Concentration and Temporal Persistence of Poverty: Industrial Structure, Racial/Ethnic Composition, and the Complex Links of Poverty

Assessing the Spatial Concentration and Temporal Persistence of Poverty: Industrial Structure, Racial/Ethnic Composition, and the Complex Links of Poverty

Curtis, K. Reyes, P. E., O’Connell, H. A. and Zhu, J.

Spatial Demography 2013, 1(2), 178–194. DOI:10.1007/BF03354897

ABSTRACT

This study assesses the social-structural, spatial, and temporal dimensions of aggregate-level poverty in the US Upper Midwest between 1960 and 2000. Central focus is on the links between local-area poverty, industrial structure and racial/ethnic composition, and the spatial and temporal dimensions of the linkages. During the study period, the region underwent significant industrial restructuring and dramatic change in racial/ethnic concentration. Using newly developed statistical methods for spatial-temporal regression, we explore hypotheses related to the spatial and temporal dimensions of the complex relationship between poverty, industrial structure, and race/ethnicity. Our approach yields reliable and interpretable estimates for structural factors of interest as well as the spatial-temporal autocorrelation structure underlying the data. Results inform theory about the implications of industrial structure and racial/ethnic composition for the concentration and persistence of poverty with clear direction for future research, and contribute to our understanding of the methodological approaches to investigating data that varies by and is dependent on space and time.

KEYWORDS County poverty, race/ethnicity, industrial structure, Upper Midwest, spatial-temporal autocorrelation, maximum likelihood estimation.